Archive for August, 2009

Pandora Internet radio

Tuesday, August 25th, 2009

I was watching Bloomberg this past weekend, and one of the founders of Pandora was being interviewed on their weekend “Venture” program venue.   The description got me hook, line, and sinker – it’s the first App I have that makes the (faster) “Wireless” capability of an iPhone really make the App better ( I am not a “Gamer” on the iPhone ).  I downloaded it on my iPhone within the hour.

I would call Pandora the “e-Harmony” on steroids of Internet Radio.  They would call themselves “the Music Genome” project.  Everyday, 50 musicians are showing up, putting on a headset, and listening to music and turning the song into a code of 400 standardized attributes of a given song ( style, melody, loudness, … ).  It takes about 15 minutes to “code” (rate the attributes) a non Classical song.  It takes 60+ minute to codify the attributes of a Classical song.  Those attributes are then put into the “matching” software which determines the delivery of music to the consumer.  They have an inventory of 750,000 songs, with 10,000 additional each week.

The Pluses -

  • Multiple personalized radio stations that are geared to your likes ( does not use Collaborative matching logic in the Personalization algorithms.  Ie, just because “Sam” also liked the song you liked, doesn’t mean that you will hear songs similar to what Sam likes ).  It’s all about the “G”  ( Genome that is ).

Related “Buys” ( I can’t resist the predictive drag / impact on other devices / gadgets ):

  • The “iHome” radios.  Right now, I’m listening to my Wolfgang Mozart Pandora station.  It selects and plays songs that have a similar “genome” to Mozart.  It plays just what I like when I want to listen to Classical music.  The radio hardware that can plug in an iPhone or an iPod Touch will now be playing streaming high quality Internet Radio rather than “carefully collected and purchased” music on the device itself
  • Demand for Wireless bandwidth

Releated Sells

  • Music Purchases.  While Pandora does make it easy to purchase (via iTunes) a song being played, I have yet to purchase one because the “genome” personalization and tailoring is SO good.  Why buy when another one that I will like is just around the corner.  Only if I am in a location without High Speed Wireless access will I be playing music off the device itself.  There is cerainly fewer purchases in the future with this particular consumer ( yours truly )
  • Commercial Radio.  The third boom on the commercial radio market.  The amount of time I spend listening to commercial radio is down already as a result of having an iPod / iPhone along with a good set of headphones ( thank you Bose ).   But I was still listening to commercial radio at times for variety.   I’d say the amount of Commercial radio time is cut in half again as a result of having Pandora ( I get both music that I like due to the “genome” approach, but also get variety ( variety by station, and the ability to create many stations ( Mozart, Benoit, Pink floyd, … ) ) ).   The first boom was satellite radio.  The second was the iPod and later iPhone.  The third boom is Pandora.  If devices / adapters come out so I can stream Pandora in my Car ( and can have broadband / wide area wireless connectivity ), even time with commercial radio in the car will be dramatically reduced. 
  • Potentially home wireless providers.  My data usage is going to skyrocket again.  I was already a fairly heavy data user with email / calendaring / web-site accesses ( including large VMWare image downloads measured in the GB ) / children that are online gamers / and now Internet TV, the data usage for streaming music in the home will add even more to that.  With an “all you can eat” pricing model, if everyone turned the existing commercial radiowave usage into wireless Internet access - would it erode their margins by having to beef up their infrastructure or the requirements for supporting the number of simultaneous wireless access devices within a given household?   

Oracle Data Integrator – Demo Webcast Archives

Thursday, August 20th, 2009

I was about to send the link below to a different customer for the third time in two days.  Then a thought went through my head – perhaps I should create a quick post on DavidHecksel.com to share with everyone ( as I feel the ratio of valuable content provided divided by awareness of said content is much ( much ) too high ).

Whether you use Oracle Data Integrator regularly, are evaluating usage, or just interested in learning more about it, the archives of the twice monthly webcasts on ODI are an invaluable source of information.

Oracle Data Integrator Demo Webcast Archive

Could SMU Mustang 2009 Football start 3-0 ? Expect surprises from SMU Football this Fall

Sunday, August 16th, 2009

When I was talking  with “the savant” earlier today, the topic  of SMU Mustangs came up.  Some of you might have thought to yourselves ”SM Who” rather than SMU.

According to “the savant”, he expects some  up-side surprises on the gridiron this fall for the SMU Mustangs.  When asked why, he gave the following reasons:

  •     Coach June Jones – his 2nd year at SMU this fall
  •     Increased abilities on special teams, particularly the kicking / kick return areas
  •     A “3 out of 5″ in 2009 compared to last years ”2 out of 5″ QB situation
  •     A more consistent defense.  He added don’t be surprised to see a few “surprise” interceptions creating some  “surprise” game ending results

With a little research online, I found projections for SMU this year anywhere from “2-10″ to 6-6, with the most optimistic from ESPN’s Kiper adding  SMU to his 2009 “Sleeper Team” category ( primarily because it is June Jones 2nd year as coach )

Given that, I looked at the SMU Football 2009 schedule to see where some of those surprises might be and why they may very well be 3-0 in September.

  • Stephen F. Austin  ( any disagreements here ? )
  • UAB                             ( perhaps the toughest of the first three games for SMU )
  • Washington State  ( I think SMU could have beat Washington State last year )

As the season progresses, I’m not saying they are going to go 12-0.  But I think 3-0 is a very doable goal for an increasingly talented SMU football team and coaching staff. 

   As the season progresses, regularly check out :

      College Football Central for more news and game prognistications.

Current Favorite Stocks

Saturday, August 8th, 2009

Buy and Hold, or time the market? 

The answer is being debated daily on CNBC or Bloomberg TV by guests, analysts and experts.  I do not believe it is a binary answer.  My personal opinion is buy and hold over periods of time with relatively rare events that drive dramatic re-allocation (significantly sloped movements above 200 day moving averages are one indicator to mark candidate events).  The mortgage, housing market, and  banking crisis of August 2008 – March 2009 was certainly one of those events.   The summer and early fall 2008 was the time to have a reallocation to a “conservative” portfolio done and complete.

March 6, 2009 will be the day looked back as “the bottom”.  Do a 3 month or 6 month chart of virtually any stock today, and you will see a “V” figure from January – March (down), March – June ( up ).  I waited until April 3 to reallocate, with additional reallocation May 1, and completing the last leg May 15.  But what about post June?  What about today? 

I still like the same stocks / funds today as I did on on April 3.  They fit into three categories:

  • International Stocks
  • US Midcap stocks
  • Commodities

The above reallocation has performed (very) well,  and will  continue to perform well as long as the set of assumptions that have made them successful to date remain.  What are they you might ask?  Let’s take a look:

  1. Interest rates remain low.  With the Fed wanting banks to recapitalize themselves, a steep yield curve ( lower short term yields,  higher yields on longer term bonds ) is likely to remain for some time.  A steep yield curve is a “money making machine” for banks and financial institutions ( borrowing at near zero, lending at higher rates ).
  2. Depreciation of the dollar.  With international economies coming out of “the crisis” faster than the US, and the vast amount of  additional dollars injected into the banking system, the dollar is not likely to climb unless another “crisis” presents itself ( resulting in a flight to safety ).  When the dollar depreciates, international stocks return positive returns even in a flat market ( because the international assets are worth more dollars over a given period given a dollar that is worth less today relative to the other international currency than it was last month ).
  3. The US and international economies continue to stabilize ( a positive first derivative on quarter to quarter comparisons of growth ( even if comparing two negative numbers ).  This is likely to continue through the Fall of 2009 at a minimum
  4. The areas “hit hardest” will have the “best returns” in a rebound ( financial stocks fit this category ).  2007 – early 2009 will be a 50 year event on “hit hardest”.  If you believe that, then the premise of a 50 year event appreciation in certain sectors follows
  5. The prospect of positive first derivative quarter to quarter comparisons of inflation ( even if comparing two negative numbers during the early part of the recovery ). 

So, given the above, what are my favorite equity picks:

  • LZEMX – Lazard Emerging Markets fund.  It has a 47% YTD return, close to 80% if comparing March 6 -> present.
  • TMGFX – Turner Midcap Fund ( US Midcap fund )
  • XLF – Financial Services Spider fund
  • BAC – Bank of America.  While it was down to $5 at one point, it is still less than half of what it was a year ago.  Had the good fortune of starting to get in at $7.50 (currently $16)
  • USO – Oil commodity fund whose performance is supposed to track the price of oil. 
  • SIVR – Silver commodity fund whose performance is supposed to track the price of silver

There are a few others of interest ( such as “C” (Citigroup), and commodity exchange traded funds RJZ,  DBA, but the above six comprise the bulk of the reallocation on April 3, and feel those same picks remain as valid today as on April 3. 

I would like to thank numerous appearances by Mohamed El Arian ( PIMCO ), and Jim Rogers on CNBC and Bloomberg over the past six months for allowing me to map this “financial crisis” to one of my more important personal beliefs – “With every change comes opportunity”.